The Decline: The Geography of a RecessionThis is a very informativeThis is a very informative graphic. However, its data is easily misunderstood. The casual observer is likely to make the assumption that the unemployment percentages displayed are month-by-month. Buried in the footnote beneath the animation is the explanation that the percentages displayed are a 12-month moving average, i.e., not one month at a time. Therefore, in an increasing unemployment environment, the graphic understates the rate of unemployment. For example, a county which currently shows an unemployment rate of 7% to 9.9% could well have a true current rate of 15% which, when averaged with the previous 12 months, displays as 7% to 9.9%. It's not that the data displayed is wrong - it is just lagging. Recommendation: give that footnote about a 12-month average more prominence - ideally a note over the color key: "Unemployment rates shown are averages of the previous 12 months."
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